An arbitration court in The Hague will rule on Tuesday in a dispute about the South China Sea in which the Philippines is challenging China’s right to exploit resources across vast swathes of the strategic territory.

The United States and China regularly conduct military exercises in the area, which is of vital interest to both Beijing and Washington, and have accused each other of provocations as recently as last month.

It reflects the shifting balance of power in the 3.5 million square kilometre sea, where China has been expanding its presence by building artificial islands and dispatching patrol boats that keep Philippine fishing vessels away.

In 2010, then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton provoked outrage in Beijing when she pushed the South China Sea to the top of the regional and US security agendas.

Combined with her tough line on human rights and role in leading President Barack Obama’s Asia “rebalancing”, Clinton is well-known in China – but not well liked.

While presidential rival Donald Trump has irritated Beijing with comments such as comparing the US trade deficit with China to rape, he is largely an unknown quantity, a person who even privately officials shrug their shoulders over.

China’s military, which is ramping up its presence in the South China Sea as part of a major modernisation programme, is also watching the election closely.

“Hillary is very fierce when it comes to China,” a Chinese official close to the military establishment told Reuters.